Expectations from the Stargate Project
Stargate (c) ChatGPT
In January, there was a lot of talk about the Stargate Project — the U.S. initiative to develop AI with a budget of $0.5 trillion. In terms of investment, it is comparable to the Manhattan Project (creating the atomic bomb) and the Apollo Program (the first humans on the Moon).
Stargate is an interesting and undoubtedly important project for humanity, and it will most likely lead to significant results. But let's not be overly optimistic about it.
Historical examples show that projects of this scale impact ordinary people's lives indirectly and only after decades.
The Manhattan Project created the atomic bomb, but Mechs with atomic reactors did not start guarding borders, and atomic battery-powered cars did not appear on the roads.
Apollo sent people to the Moon, but space hotels did not open, and even visiting the Moon turned out to be a temporary activity.
So, why are these projects important?
Results of 2024 for me and the blog
Blog statistics for 2024. Accurate statistics start around March, as the blog used the old analytics service from January to mid-February.
Let me share what I was up to in 2024, how my plans for the outgoing year [ru] turned out, and what I plan for the year ahead.
AI notes 2024: Prognosis
I continue my notes on AI at the end of 2024.
In the previous posts we discussed three theses:
- By analyzing the decisions of major AI developers, such as OpenAI or Google, we can make fairly accurate assumptions about the state of the AI industry.
- All current progress is based on a single base technology — generative knowledge bases, which are large probabilistic models.
- The development of neural networks, a.k.a. generative knowledge bases, is reaching a plateau; their further advancement is likely to be incremental/evolutionary rather than explosive/revolutionary.
Based on these theses, we can finally talk about the most hyped, most exciting topic: how long will the current progress continue? Will we reach the singularity in 2025, or will everything remain the same? When will our god of metal and silicon finally appear?
In 2023, I already published a forecast on artificial intelligence [ru]. It is still valid — take a look. In it, I spent more time describing what to expect. This text is more about what not to expect. So, it turns out that I outlined two boundaries of the possible, and the truth should be somewhere in between.
Impressions after reading Harry Potter
The classic cover of the first book.
As part of my immersion in modern world culture and integration into the Hamburg community (the city is a major fan hub), I read all seven Harry Potter books. I even specifically got the English edition to read in British English, not American (although Reddit says the difference between them is small).
Impressions are mixed.
On the one hand, the story is interesting, written in good lively language, the first books are read with pleasure, the last ones without significant suffering.
On the other hand, I expected more. After reading, I can't reconcile the quality of the books with the level of their popularity.
On the third hand, I believe Joanne Rowling could have done it better :-) Not that it's written poorly — it's written well — but too one-sided, too narrow, I would say. Especially the last books.
Let me tell you a little more about the books.
AI notes 2024: The current state
I continue my notes on AI at the end of 2024.
- Industry transparency
- Generative knowledge base
- The current state
- Prognosis
In the previous posts, we discussed two theses:
- By analyzing the decisions of major AI developers, such as OpenAI or Google, we can make fairly accurate assumptions about the state of the AI industry.
- All current progress is based on a single base technology — generative knowledge bases, which are large probabilistic models.
Based on these theses, let's look at the current state of the industry.