Review of the book "The Signal and the Noise"
Nate Silver — the author of "The Signal and the Noise" — is widely known for his successful forecasts, such as the US elections. It is not surprising that the book became a bestseller.
As you might guess, the book is about forecasts. More precisely, it is about approaches to forecasting, complexities, errors, misconceptions, and so on.
As usual, I expected a more theoretical approach, in the spirit of Scale [ru], but the author chose a different path and presented his ideas through the analysis of practical cases: one case per chapter. Each chapter describes a significant task, such as weather forecasting, and provides several prisms for looking at building forecasts. This certainly makes the material more accessible, but personally, I would like more systematics and theory.
Because of the case studies approach, it isn't easy to make a brief summary of the book. It is possible, and it would even be interesting to try, but the amount of work is too large — the author did not intend to provide a coherent system or a short set of basic theses.
Therefore, I will review the book as a whole, provide an approximate list of prisms, and list some cool facts.
Two years of writing RFCs — statistics
Slightly more than two years ago, I became a Lead/Engineering Manager for Palta's payment team. I left the company at the end of 2023 for another sabbatical [ru].
It is time to sum up. I will start with my favorite initiative.
From the first month, I promoted the idea of preceding major changes with text documents — RFC — Request for Comments.
In this post, I will analyze two years of applying this practice to share the experience, summarize the results, and have convincing arguments for my next job.